US Market Forecast. August 2022

As of August 2nd, I don’t see fuel for an upside move in SPY yet. There is no increase in volumes in call options. Overall, open interest in put options continues to dominate. The volume ratio of put and call options is as follows:Amount of volumes in SPY for August 2022

Also until August 19th there is no fuel in the form of expiring options:

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US market forecast for July 2022

The reference point in July in SPY for me will be the price range of 400 – 365. Of the significant dates, I would note the 15th of July. On the 15th, large volumes in put options will expire.

Volumes by series in SPY July 2022

If between July 11-15 the price is near the 380 level, then carefully monitor the volatility. At levels 380, 370, large volumes of open positions in put options begin. They can be the catalyst for a downward movement. After the 15th, the downward movement will stop.

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US Market Forecast. May 2022

02.05.22
I will wait for the $400 level in SPY and watch the volumes as the price approaches this level. You also need to follow the news from Russia. If there is news of mobilization on May 9th, then it is quite possible to move to the level of $380 and below in SPY. Plus, we are watching the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

SPY chart May 2022

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Forecast for the US market for the second half of April 2022

11.04.22

In my opinion, the fuel for the broad trending moves in the US market over the next two weeks will be volume in SPY put options with an expiration date of April 14th. The next large volume puts will expire on May 20th and June 17th. By April 14th, 3 million put options should be expiring in SPY:

Sum calls-puts open interest SPY April 2022

In an option series expiring on April 14, the ratio of puts and calls is as follows:

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Medium-term options selling in the US market. April 2022.

The break in publications was due to the fact that in January-February I was creating software for analyzing open interest in options, and at the end of February there was no time for work. I hope that I can get back to work.

Even though the post is called a mid-term sell, I opened a directional trade in SPY on March 29th and bought a 450/449 put spread in SPY with an expiry date of April 14th. In principle, it would be possible to sell, for example, the 480th calls. I was waiting for the price to approach the 462-465 range and move down from there to about the 450 level. At the level of 450, a zone of increased volatility can be expected.

Order SPY put spread 450-490

Open Interest in SPY options on March 29th:

Option open interest SPY 29 March 2020

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