US Market Forecast. May 2022

I will wait for the $400 level in SPY and watch the volumes as the price approaches this level. You also need to follow the news from Russia. If there is news of mobilization on May 9th, then it is quite possible to move to the level of $380 and below in SPY. Plus, we are watching the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

SPY chart May 2022

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Forecast for the US market for the second half of April 2022


In my opinion, the fuel for the broad trending moves in the US market over the next two weeks will be volume in SPY put options with an expiration date of April 14th. The next large volume puts will expire on May 20th and June 17th. By April 14th, 3 million put options should be expiring in SPY:

Sum calls-puts open interest SPY April 2022

In an option series expiring on April 14, the ratio of puts and calls is as follows:

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Medium-term options selling in the US market. April 2022.

The break in publications was due to the fact that in January-February I was creating software for analyzing open interest in options, and at the end of February there was no time for work. I hope that I can get back to work.

Even though the post is called a mid-term sell, I opened a directional trade in SPY on March 29th and bought a 450/449 put spread in SPY with an expiry date of April 14th. In principle, it would be possible to sell, for example, the 480th calls. I was waiting for the price to approach the 462-465 range and move down from there to about the 450 level. At the level of 450, a zone of increased volatility can be expected.

Order SPY put spread 450-490

Open Interest in SPY options on March 29th:

Option open interest SPY 29 March 2020

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Pairs for May 2021

Pairs for trading on the US stock market for May 2021.

V*200-MA*100. Asset Correlations 0.87, p-value 0.03.

Pair V200-MA100 MAY 2021

V-MA Rolling 120-day Correlation:

V-MA Rolling 120-day Correlation MAY 2021

KEY*400-HBAN*500. Asset Correlations 0.93, p-value 0.03.

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