US Market Forecast. May 2022

02.05.22
I will wait for the $400 level in SPY and watch the volumes as the price approaches this level. You also need to follow the news from Russia. If there is news of mobilization on May 9th, then it is quite possible to move to the level of $380 and below in SPY. Plus, we are watching the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

SPY chart May 2022

SPY May 2022 call put open interest

SPY May 2022 combo strikes

On May 6, expire medium volumes . On May 20, expiration of large volumes:

SPY total 2022 call put open interest

11.05.22

I expect the 390-380 levels in SPY to be held until the large volumes expire on May 20th. As the price approached the $400 level, I started selling puts with a strike of 370 and an expiration date of May 20th.

Option Series in SPY May 20, 2022:

SPY May 20 2022 series

SPY May 11 2022 combo strikes

 

13.05.22

I started closing positions:

Positions in SPY May 2022

On May 9, I sold the spread at $40, and on May 13, on a pullback, I bought it back at $15.

 

24.05.22

On the 23rd, I was waiting for a reaction to the expiration of large volumes. It appears that most of the hedging positions closed towards the end of the trading session on May 20th. The volumes in SPY on the 23rd show that there is little fuel to move up. I’ll be waiting in SPY levels 380-370. If the volume on the fall will increased, then I will wait for the level of 360.

When moving up, I will wait for the resistance levels 425-430.

31.05.22

The rise on May 24-27 could have been a change in hedging due to lower volatility and rolling put options in SPY. When I wrote above about levels 380-370 I was under the influence of the news background. There were too many commentators predicting a fall to the levels of 360, 340. This knocked my focus.

Now we see an increase in volume in calls at strike 420. This could become a resistance level. I will wait for the decline in volumes on growth. If there is a decrease in volumes and the price is in the range of 420-430, then it will be possible to try to sell the call spread. Or open a directional short position. I still see 380 as support.

Delta call put SPY 31 may 2022

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