VSA – analysis on february 2020

In CMCSA 02/21/20 I bought put options with 42.5 strike. The general mood is to drop the market due to the situation with coronavirus. In the CMCSA, on the weekly chart there was an aptrust signal (false breakdown) and a test of this aptrast on low volumes.

CMCSA week

On the daily chart, the price is stuck at the level of a high-volume sales bar. The day bar on the 21st can also be called an SOT signal, although not ideal.

CMCSA day

In FCX 02/21/20 I bought put options with strike 11. The main idea was to continue the down trend on the weekly chart. There was a break of the trend line, but the price did not go up:

FCX week

On the daily chart, you can see the aptrast signal and test. The entry is not very successful, the price has already gone far down from the test high. But then on this downward movement there is a resumption of activity of the seller with an increased volume. I marked this volume with a red vertical line:

FCX day

I sold GDX on February 11th and 13th. I used put options. Strike 144, expiration March 27th. The idea for the deal was based on VSA analysis.
On a monthly chart, the price entered the sales area. On the weekly chart in the last wave, you can see that the buy bars (for me, buying is when the closing of the day is higher than the closing of the previous day) go at reduced volumes, and bars for sale with increased volumes. On the daily chart, it is clear that on January 31, at an increased volume, the price tried to update the high, but the result is bad. Next, we see a drop and pullback. The pullback looks like a test. Volumes on the test are below average.
I do not expect a strong downward movement, but the GLD may fall to 146-145.

VSA GDX month

VSA GDX week 2020

VSA GDX Day

I continue to hold my position in put options. If you compare two bars, you can see that the volumes are decreasing and the closing result on February 14th is worse than January 31st. The last low is higher than the previous one. That worries me.

GDX Day 14.02.20

I had doubts about this deal because of the spread of the virus. There was little volume in this position. There is still time before expiration. These will be small losses for my account.

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